Definition Ofunemployment Rate Forecast
Unemployment rate forecast is defined as the projected value for the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force, where the latter consists of the unemployed plus those in paid or self-employment. Unemployed people are those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks. When unemployment is high, some people become discouraged and stop looking for work they are then excluded from the labour force.
How Many People Are Unemployed Now
The most recent unemployment rate – for January to March, when most of the restrictions were still in place – was 4.8%, according to the Office for National Statistics .
The that means about one in 20 people who want a job can’t find one.
That’s more than at the start of the pandemic.
However, despite lockdown, the unemployment rate has fallen slightly since the autumn.
This has surprised most economists, who were expecting unemployment to be much higher.
It is partly because businesses have become better at coping with lockdowns, as well as the government spending billions of pounds supporting jobs.
What Are The Other Measures Of Us Unemployment
In response to criticisms that the official rate paints an unjustifiably rosy picture of the health of the labor market, the BLS publishes five alternative measures: U-1, U-2, U-4, U-5, and U-6. Though these are often referred to as unemployment rates , U-3 is the official and the most commonly cited national unemployment rate. The others are characterized as measures of “labor underutilization.”
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How To Calculate The Real Unemployment Rate
In August 2021, the real unemployment rate was 8.8%. It’s much higher than the reported unemployment rate of 5.2%. There are three steps for calculating the real rate:
How To Calculate Futa Tax
- FUTA Tax per employee = x .
- With the Taxable Wage Base Limit at $7,000,
- FUTA Tax per employee = $7,000 x 6% = $420
Consider an employer having 10 employees. Lets see how to calculate the FUTA tax.
- FUTA Tax Rate = 6%
- Number of Employees = 10
- FUTA Tax per employee = $7,000 x 6% = $420
- The FUTA tax for the employer will be $4,200.
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What Is Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percent of the labor force that is jobless. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating them. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall.
How Does The Furlough Scheme Keep Unemployment Down
Without the billions spent on schemes to protect jobs, and the rapid roll-out of vaccines, the unemployment rate would have been much higher. Last year it was feared that up to four million people would be unemployed.
Under the furlough scheme, the government has helped many businesses keep their staff on by helping to pay their wages.
The furlough scheme has protected more than 11 million jobs since the pandemic began, and four million workers were on furlough at the end of March. The scheme will continue until the end of September.
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Survey Response And Timeline
The August Labour Force Survey was run in respect of the two weeks from Sunday 1 August to Saturday 14 August, and collected over the period from Sunday 8 August to Saturday 28 August.
The ABS would like to thank Australians for their continued support in responding to our surveys during such a difficult time, given how critically important this information is.
Futa Tax Rates And Taxable Wage Base Limit For 2021
The FUTA tax rate protection for 2021 is 6% as per the IRS standards. The FUTA tax applies to the first $7,000 of wages paid to each employee throughout the year.
The first $7,000 for each employee will be the taxable wage base limit for FUTA.
Once an employees year to date gross earning reaches $7,000 for the year, then the employer can stop paying FUTA tax.
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How To Use The Unemployment Rate
Keep in mind that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It tells you what has already happened, since employers only lay off workers after business slows down.
The unemployment rate isn’t lagging as much as usual because the pandemic is still creating sudden changes.
When a recession is over, companies resist hiring new workers until they are sure the economy will stay strong. The economy could improve for months, and the recession could be over before the unemployment rate drops. Although it’s not suitable for predicting trends, it’s useful for confirming them.
Nonfarm Wage & Salaried Workers
The September 2021 nonfarm worker data is preliminary and subject to revision.
Seasonally Adjusted
The seasonally adjusted nonfarm worker level increased 600 workers over the month to 437,800 workers in September 2021. The largest number of jobs were added within Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Construction and Professional and Business Services .
Over the year, the seasonally adjusted nonfarm worker level increased by 8,600 workers . Over-the-year gains were related to worker levels rebounding after previously dipping due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
| South Dakota | |
| -0.6 | 3.1 |
| Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
The table above shows the seasonally adjusted data. A table displaying the not seasonally adjusted data can be found below. Visit our technical notes page for an explanation of seasonal adjustment.
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Over the month, the not seasonally adjusted nonfarm wage and salaried worker level decreased by 2,800 workers . Leisure and Hospitality had the largest over-the-month drop with a loss of 4,500 workers . Historically, worker levels in Leisure and Hospitality peak in the summer and decline when temperatures fall.
| South Dakota |
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What Is The Current Unemployment Rate In The United States
The current U.S. unemployment rate had fallen to 8.4% in August after reaching a peak of 14.7% in April 2020. The total number of unemployed is 13.55 million, 7.5 million more than August 2019. In April, 23 million workers were let go from their jobs in response to the coronavirus pandemic How Unemployment Tracks Recessions
Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
Virginias unadjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.3 of a percentage point in August to 3.8 percent, and was down 3.3 percentage points from a year ago. Compared to a year ago, the number of unemployed decreased by 150,520, household employment increased by 14,765, and the labor force decreased by 135,755. Virginias not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continues to be below the national unadjusted rate, which declined by 0.4 of a percentage point in August to 5.3 percent.
Compared to last month, the August unadjusted workweek for Virginias 154,800 manufacturing production workers decreased by 1.9 hours to 39.9 hours. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production workers increased by $.53 to $21.59 in August and average weekly earnings decreased $18.87 to $861.44.
The statistical reference week for the household survey this month was the week of August 8-14, 2021.
The Virginia Employment Commission plans to release the April local area unemployment rates on Wednesday, September 29, 2021. The data will be available on our website www.VirginiaWorks.com. The September statewide unemployment rate and employment data for both the state and metropolitan areas are scheduled to be released on Friday, October 22, 2021.
Files detailing August’s unemployment numbers are available below:
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Sample Composition And Rotation
The Labour Force Survey sample can be thought of as comprising eight sub-samples , with each sub-sample remaining in the survey for eight months, and one group “rotating out” each month and being replaced by a new group “rotating in”. As seven-eighths of the sample are common from one month to the next, changes in the estimates reflect real changes in the labour market, rather than changes in the sample. The replacement sample is generally selected from the same geographic areas as the outgoing one, as part of a representative sampling approach.
The sample comprises three components:
- the matched common sample
- the unmatched common sample
- the incoming rotation group
The matched common sample describes the change observed for the same respondents in the current and previous month, while the other two components reflect differences between the aggregate labour force status of different groups of people.
While the rotation groups are designed to be representative of the population, the outgoing and incoming rotation groups will almost always have somewhat different characteristics, as they reflect different households and people. The design of the survey, including the weighting and estimation processes, ensures that these differences are generally relatively minor and do not affect the representativeness of the survey and its estimates. Monthly estimates are designed to be representative, regardless of the relative contribution of the three components of the sample.
Collection Of Unemployment Data
Official U.S. employment statistics are produced by the BLS, an agency within the Department of Labor. Every month the Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce, conducts the Current Population Survey using a sample of around 60,000 households, or around 110,000 individuals.
The survey collects data on individuals in these households by race, ethnicity, age, veteran status, and gender, all of whichalong with geographyadd nuance to the employment data. The sample is rotated so that 75% of the households are constant from month to month and 50% are from year to year. Interviews are conducted in person or by phone.
The survey excludes individuals under the age of 16 and those who are in the Armed Forces . People in correctional facilities, mental healthcare facilities, and other similar institutions are also excluded. Interviewers ask a series of questions that determine employment status, but do not ask whether respondents are employed or unemployed. Nor do the interviewers themselves assign employment status they record the answers for the BLS to analyze.
Interviewers also collect information on industry, occupation, average earnings, union membership, andfor the joblesswhether they quit or were discharged .
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How Is Us Unemployment Data Collected
Official U.S. employment statistics are produced by the BLS, an agency within the Department of Labor. Every month the Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce, conducts the Current Population Survey using a sample of around 60,000 households, or around 110,000 individuals.
These surveys are conducted in person or over the phone. The responses are categorized by race, ethnicity, age, veteran status, and gender, all of whichalong with geographyadd nuance to the employment data. The sample is rotated so that 75% of the households are constant from month to month and 50% are from year to year.
What The Us Unemployment Rate Doesnt Tell You
The true measure of unemployment depends on who you ask
Just how healthy is the US jobs market? On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest jobs report, showing that the US added a disappointing 194,000 jobs last month while announcing that the official unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the lowest its been since its frightening climb to 14.7% when the Covid-19 pandemic first struck the US.
The figures seem somehow disconnected and, for some, Septembers headline figure is woefully misleading, as it is every month. What if the true unemployment rate is actually closer to 22%?
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The Unemployment Figures In Detail
The total number of unemployed is 8.4 million, lower than July’s 8.7 million. The number of long-term unemployed dropped to 3.2 million. A smaller number, 2.1 million, lost jobs within the last five weeks. This number declined by 174,000 from July’s 2.3 million.
The real unemployment rate was 8.8% in August, 0.4 percentage points lower than in July. This alternate measure of unemployment, known as U-6, gives a broader definition of unemployment. It includes people who would like a job but haven’t looked for one in the past month. It also includes those who are underemployed and marginally attached.
The real unemployment rate contains 392,000 discouraged workers, down from 507,000 in July and 617,000 in June. Discouraged workers are people who have given up looking for work but would take a job if offered. They are not counted in the unemployment rate because they haven’t looked for a job in the past four weeks.
The labor force participation rate was 61.7%there was no change from July. The labor force doesn’t include those who haven’t looked for a job in the past month. Some would like a job, but others dropped out of the labor force for different reasons. They may have retired, gone back to school, or had a baby.
Compare The Real Unemployment Rate
Throughout the years, the official rate has been a little more than half the real rate. That remains true no matter how well the economy is doing. Even in 2000, when the official rate dropped to 3.8%, the real rate nearly doubled it at 6.9%. In October 2009, the unemployment rate was 10.0%its highest after the 2008 recessionand the real rate was still a much higher 17.1%.
The BLS has published the unemployment rate every year since 1929.
To put things in perspective, the chart below compares the official unemployment rate to the real rate since 1994 . The rates given are for January of each year.
| Year |
|---|
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Improving The Estimation Of Short
Over the COVID period, there have been large reductions in short-term non-resident arrivals in Australia. These reductions are not reflected in Labour Force Survey employment estimates but are accounted for in Labour Account estimates of employment and jobs. Differences between the Labour Force Survey and Labour Account were outlined in the release.
Modelling employed short-term non-residents in the Labour Account
As noted in the March quarter Labour Account release, a model-based approach is needed to estimate the number of short-term/temporary non-residents who are employed as there are no direct sources for this information.
Improvements to the model and revisions in the September quarter release
The ABS has reviewed the modelling approach used in the Labour Account and has identified some improved data sources and method enhancements. These will provide a more robust estimation of the number of short-term non-residents who are working, and the hours they worked.
The new model will be implemented into the Labour Account for the September quarter 2021, with revisions to quarterly and annual Labour Account series across all quadrants .
These revisions will result in a reduction of the number of employed short-term non-residents in the Labour Account.
Who Is Becoming Unemployed
Young people have been particularly badly hit by the pandemic.
Shops, pubs, restaurants and entertainment were unable to fully open and these are areas where lots of young people work.
Over the past year the number of under-25s on company payrolls fell by 289,000.
Record numbers of young people are also choosing to stay in education, and are not looking for work.
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Dont Be Fooled By Official Unemployment Rate Of 147% The Real Figure Is Even Scarier
If 14.7 percent unemployment is a portrait of devastation, then the real figure, which is closer … to 20%, is a glimpse of economic cataclysm.
Getty
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment data on Friday showing that the U.S. economy lost over 20 million jobs in April with the unemployment rate spiking to 14.7 percent, the worst since the Great Depression. The report reinforces what many have already seen up close, which is the continuing economic carnage on the American economy caused by the coronavirus. Heres the scary part, as shocking as the data is, reality is much worse because of quirks in the BLS methodology.
If 14.7 percent unemployment is a portrait of devastation, as the New York Times referred to it, then the real figure, which is closer to 20%, is a glimpse of economic cataclysm.
Current Unemployment Rates For States And Historical Highs/lows
Current Unemployment Rates for States and Historical Highs/Lows, SeasonallyAdjustedState
Preliminary
Note: Rates shown are a percentage of the labor force. Data refer to place of residence. Seriesbegin in January 1976. Historical highs and lows show the most recent month that a rate wasrecorded in the event of multiple occurrences. Estimates for at least the latest five years aresubject to revision early in the following calendar year. Estimates for the current month aresubject to revision the following month.
September 17, 2021
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What’s The Difference Between U
U-3 defines unemployed people as those who are willing and available to work, and who have actively sought work within the past four weeks. Those with temporary, part-time, or full-time jobs are considered employed, as are those who perform at least 15 hours of unpaid family work. U-6 adds on to U-3 the people who are marginally attached to the labor force, which includes discouraged workers, plus those who are employed part-time for economic reasons.
