Worried About Getting Sick
Weve been taking lockdown pretty seriously. My wife and son have some autoimmune conditions. I didnt want to put my family in a position where Id be working in a very public-facing job and potentially bringing something home. Paul Hofford, former bartender at A Rakes Progress in Washington. Quoted in Washington City Paper.
Nobody wants to get a potentially deadly disease for a job slinging eggs Benedict. And more so than many other occupations, restaurants and other parts of the service sector require face-to-face contact with the public.
One piece of evidence supporting this idea: There appears to be a relationship between vaccinations of people and a rise in their employment rate.
Aaron Sojourner, a University of Minnesota economist, used the Census Bureaus Household Pulse Survey to explore that relationship among 3,600 finely grained groupings of Americans by demographics and geography.
A 10-percentage-point increase in the share of people fully vaccinated corresponded with a 1.1-percentage-point increase in their employment. There are many ways to interpret the finding it doesnt tell us anything about causation but one possibility is that vaccinated people are more comfortable taking jobs.
The first-order issue is the virus, and if thats what caused the crisis, then it is also the path out of the crisis, Professor Sojourner said. Crushing the virus is the solution to both the supply problem and the demand problem.
Energy Policy And Carbon Price Certainty
Various studies place the cost of environmental regulations in the thousands of dollars per employee. Americans are split on whether protecting the environment or economic growth is a higher priority. Regulations that would add costs to petroleum and coal may slow the economy, although they would provide incentives for clean energy investment by addressing regulatory uncertainty regarding the price of carbon.
President Obama advocated a series of clean energy policies during June 2013. These included: Reducing carbon pollution from power plants Continue expanding usage of clean energy raising fuel economy standards and energy conservation through more energy-efficient homes and businesses.
How High Could Unemployment Go
Most economists expect the unemployment rate to rise a little later this year even though it is hoped more restrictions can be lifted.
That is because many government support schemes – such as furlough – are due to end after September.
The Bank of England expects the unemployment rate to reach around 5.5% in the autumn.
However, the number of unemployed is expected to fall next year as the economy continues to recover.
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How To Implement This Strategy Amid Covid
An obvious limitation of any form of coaching-based support, of course, is that it does not change the underlying structural roots of long-term unemployment. Addressing biases and stigmas in the hiring process requires solutions at governmental and organizational levels, too. And because my research focused on white-collar workers, more research needs to be done to understand the experiences of other kinds of workers as well.
Nevertheless, the interviews suggest that sociological coaching helped LTU jobseekers in their job search and in their well-being, even though not all found new positions. This leads me to believe that sociologically-informed support programs are vital for the well-being of people who are out of work for long periods of time as may be the case over the next several years.
LTU jobseekers in particular should look for organizations that provide support, whether in a church, a non-profit organization, or a state career center, and make sure that the support is not only focused on how to write resumes or network but is wholistic in its approach and recognizes the varied effects of LTU on individuals.
Understanding Why Ltu Occurs
Whereas traditional jobseeker support begins and ends with strategies , the ICT begins with a sociological explanation of the structural nature of the obstacles LTU jobseekers face. To counter the tendency to internalize stigma and self-blame, sociologically-informed support avoids messages that might exaggerate the role of individual jobseeker strategies in shaping job search outcomes. For example, at various ICT support gatherings, I directly discussed the sobering research findings I described above.
This kind of sociological coaching focuses on clarifying the institutional landscape and thus the context of LTU jobseekers personal experience. To most jobseekers, hiring institutions are a black box opening up this box serves a dual purpose of de-personalizing employer rejections, thus lessening self-blame and internalized stigma, and of pointing to possible strategies. This helps people understand their labor market experiences in a less personalized way, which lessens the emotional fallout of unemployment and helps maintain resilience for continued searching.
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The Hidden Costs Of Networking
I asked recruiters how given the multiple levels of bias and discrimination facing older LTU jobseekers they might advise someone to find a professional job? The answer was unanimous: Networking. While this conventional advice may have some merit, I also discovered during my research that for LTU workers, networking can have severe costs for their social and emotional well-being.
At first, the LTU jobseekers I interviewed had many former colleagues or other professional relationships with people they could contact. Most found reaching out to these people for referrals and introductions to be relatively easy.
But as the months wore on, this strategy became much more difficult. The same cloud of stigma that makes recruiters skeptical of LTU jobseekers also operates in the context of networking, in several ways.
Understand The Supply Chain Crisis
Covids impact on the supply chain continues.The pandemic has disrupted nearly every aspect of the global supply chain and made all kinds of products harder to find. In turn, scarcity has caused the prices of many things to go higher as inflation remains stubbornly high.
Almost anything manufactured is in short supply.That includes everything from toilet paper to new cars. The disruptions go back to the beginning of the pandemic, when factories in Asia and Europe were forced to shut down and shipping companies cut their schedules.
First, demand for home goods spiked.Money that Americans once spent on experiences were redirected to things for their homes. The surge clogged the system for transporting goods to the factories that needed them and finished products piled up because of a shortage of shipping containers.
Now, ports are struggling to keep up.In North America and Europe, where containers are arriving, the heavy influx of ships is overwhelming ports. With warehouses full, containers are piling up. The chaos in global shipping is likely to persist as a result of the massive traffic jam.
No one really knows when the crisis will end.Shortages and delays are likely to affect this years Christmas and holiday shopping season, but what happens after that is unclear. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said he expects supply chain problems to persist likely well into next year.
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Jobs Created By Presidential Term
Job creation is reported monthly and receives significant media attention, as a proxy for the overall health of the economy. Comparing job creation by President involves determining which starting and ending month to use, as recent Presidents typically begin in January, the fourth month into the last fiscal year budgeted by their predecessor. Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post explained in 2020 that economists debate which month to use as the base for counting job creation, between either January of the first term or February. The Washington Post uses the February jobs level as the starting point. For example, for President Obama, the computation takes the 145.815 million jobs of February 2017 and subtracts the 133.312 million jobs of February 2009 to arrive at a 12.503 million job creation figure. Using this method, the five Presidents with the most job gains were: Bill Clinton 22.745 Ronald Reagan 16.322 Barack Obama 12.503 Lyndon B. Johnson 12.338 and Jimmy Carter 10.117. Four of the top five were Democrats.
Writing in The New York Times, Steven Rattner compared job creation in the last 35 months under President Obama with the first 35 months of President Trump . President Obama added 227,000 jobs/month on average versus 191,000 jobs/month for Trump, nearly 20% more. The unemployment rate fell by 2 percentage points under Obama versus 1.2 points under Trump.
Us Jobless Rate Sinks To 42% As Many More People Find Jobs
WASHINGTON Americas unemployment rate tumbled last month to its lowest point since the pandemic struck, even as employers appeared to slow their hiring a mixed picture that pointed to a resilient economy thats putting more people to work.
The government reported Friday that businesses and other employers added just 210,000 jobs in November, the weakest monthly gain in nearly a year and less than half of Octobers increase of 546,000.
But other data from the Labor Departments report painted a brighter picture. The unemployment rate plummeted from 4.6% to 4.2% as a substantial 1.1 million Americans said they found jobs last month.
The U.S. economy still remains under threat from a spike in inflation, shortages of labor and supplies and the potential impact of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. But for now, Americans are spending freely, and the economy is forecast to expand at a 7% annual rate in the final three months of the year, a sharp rebound from the 2.1% pace in the previous quarter, when the delta variant hobbled growth.
Employers in some industries, such as restaurants, bars, and hotels, pulled back on hiring in November. By contrast, job growth remained solid in areas like transportation and warehousing, which are benefiting from the growth of online commerce.
The hiring gains in the payroll survey have also been revised up substantially in recent months, and some economists suggested that this will likely happen again in coming months.
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Comparison Of Employment Recovery Across Recessions And Financial Crises
One method of analyzing the impact of recessions on employment is to measure the period of time it takes to return to the pre-recession employment peak. By this measure, the 20082009 recession was considerably worse than the five other U.S. recessions from 1970 to present. By May 2013, U.S. employment had reached 98% of its pre-recession peak after approximately 60 months. Employment recovery following a combined recession and financial crisis tends to be much longer than a typical recession. For example, it took Norway 8.5 years to return to its pre-recession peak employment after its 1987 financial crisis and it took Sweden 17.8 years after its 1991 financial crisis. The U.S. is recovering considerably faster than either of these countries.
Unemployment Is High Why Are Businesses Struggling To Hire
Health concerns, expanded jobless benefits and still being needed at home are among the reasons would-be workers might be staying away.
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There are two distinct, and completely opposite, ways of looking at the American job market.
One would be to consult the data tables produced every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which suggest a plentiful supply of would-be workers. The unemployment rate is 6 percent, representing 9.7 million Americans who say they are actively looking for work.
Alternately, you could search for news articles mentioning labor shortage. You will find dozens in which businesses, especially in the restaurant and other service industries, say they face a potentially catastrophic inability to hire. The anecdotes come from the biggest metropolitan areas and from small towns, as well as from touristdestinations of all varieties.
If this apparent labor shortage persists, it will have huge implications for the economy in 2021 and beyond. It could act as a brake on growth and cause unnecessary business failures, long lines at remaining businesses, and rising prices.
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President’s Council On Jobs And Competitiveness
President Obama established the President’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness in 2009. The Council released an interim report with a series of recommendations in October 2011. The report included five major initiatives to increase employment while improving competitiveness:
A Third Of Americans Say They Have Used Money From A Savings Or Retirement Account To Pay Their Bills Since The Outbreak
As many Americans struggle with the effects of the coronavirus recession, a third say they have turned to savings or retirement accounts to pay their bills. Additionally, more than one-in-ten have borrowed money from friends or family , gotten food from a food bank or charitable organization , or received government assistance such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits or unemployment benefits .
Use of these additional resources since the coronavirus outbreak began is more common among Americans with lower incomes. More than four-in-ten lower-income adults say they have used money from a savings or retirement account to pay their bills during this time, and about a third or more have borrowed money from friends or family , gotten food from a food bank or charitable organization , or received government food assistance . Among middle-income adults, 33% say they have used money from a savings or retirement account to pay their bills, 11% have borrowed money from family or friends, 12% have gotten food from a food bank or charitable organization, and 7% have received government food assistance. While much smaller shares of upper-income adults say they have drawn on these resources, 15% say they used money from a savings or retirement account to pay their bills since the coronavirus began.
About a quarter of adults younger than 30 say they have received unemployment benefits since outbreak began
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Employment Policies And The Minimum Wage
Advocates of raising the minimum wage assert this would provide households with more money to spend, while opponents recognize the impact this has on businesses’, especially small businesses’, ability to pay additional workers. Critics argue raising employment costs deters hiring. During 2009, the minimum wage was $7.25 per hour, or $15,000 per year, below poverty level for some families. The New York Times editorial board wrote in August 2013: “As measured by the federal minimum wage, currently $7.25 an hour, low-paid work in America is lower paid today than at any time in modern memory. If the minimum wage had kept pace with inflation or average wages over the past nearly 50 years, it would be about $10 an hour if it had kept pace with the growth in average labor productivity, it would be about $17 an hour.”
The Economist wrote in December 2013: “A minimum wage, providing it is not set too high, could thus boost pay with no ill effects on jobs…America’s federal minimum wage, at 38% of median income, is one of the rich world’s lowest. Some studies find no harm to employment from federal or state minimum wages, others see a small one, but none finds any serious damage.”
The U.S. minimum wage was last raised to $7.25 per hour in July 2009. As of December 2013, there were 21 states with minimum wages above the Federal minimum, with the State of Washington the highest at $9.32. Ten states index their minimum wage to inflation.
State Unemployment Rates By Race And Ethnicity
EPI analyzes state unemployment rates by race and ethnicity, and racial/ethnic unemployment rate gaps, on a quarterly basis to generate a sample size large enough to create reliable estimates of unemployment rates by race and ethnicity at the state level. We only report estimates for states for which the sample size of these subgroups is large enough to create an accurate estimate. For this reason, the number of states included in our map and data tables varies based on the analysis performed .
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Many Jobless Workers Have Been Left In The Lurch
Throughout the summer, there was a lot of focus on states that were pulling the $300 weekly boost to jobless benefits ahead of schedule. But many people who lost that extra $300 bump are still eligible for their regular state benefits. And while they’re getting paid a lot less, there’s at least some money coming in.
On the other hand, millions of Americans saw their jobless aid get cut off completely — and at a time when inflation is making everyday expenses even costlier. Unfortunately, many Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before losing their jobs. So some people who have lost unemployment benefits also don’t have any savings to dip into while they look for work.
Meanwhile, some lawmakers were convinced that once enhanced unemployment ran out in early September, we’d see a surge of job applicants and new hires. The logic there was that many jobless people were simply biding their time, collecting their benefits, and not making an effort to find work.
But so far, that theory seems to have been disproven because the number of new hires hasn’t soared over the past month following the end of that federal aid. In fact, some economists firmly believe that factors like health concerns and a lack of affordable childcare options have been keeping people out of the labor force more so than unemployment benefits.
