Uk Unemployment Rate Continues To Surge
The UK’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to September, up from 4.5%, as coronavirus continued to hit the jobs market.
Redundancies rose to a record high of 314,000 in the same period, the Office for National Statistics said.
Firms made more workers redundant in anticipation of the end of the furlough scheme, which was originally supposed to finish at the end of October.
It has now been extended until the end of March.
Analysts said the extension had come “too late in the day” to save some jobs and further big rises in unemployment were likely in the coming months.
What Is Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percent of the labor force that is jobless. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating them. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall.
How Many Are Affected And Which Age Group Is Faring Worst
The number of people out of work rose by 243,000 in the three-month period, the largest increase since May 2009.
The redundancy figure was higher, however, because it included people who may have lost their jobs and then retired or decided to stop looking for work.
The ONS figures also showed there was a big rise in the number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work.
The unemployment rate among young people is far higher than the overall rate.
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Employment Insurance And Minimum Wage
There is some evidence that the natural or average level of frictional unemployment increased in the 1960s and 1970s, not only because of demographic changes but also because of changes in social legislation. In particular, the major increases in the generosity of unemployment insurance in 1971 are said by some critics to have induced higher unemployment. However, there is little consensus on the effects of employment insurance on the unemployment rate.
Some economists have also pointed to higher minimum wages as leading to more difficulty for the relatively unskilled in obtaining both work and on-the-job training. Lack of on-the-job training can make things especially difficult for new entrants to the labour force, particularly the young. Youth unemployment rates have always been higher than the average and it is hardly surprising that initial and early job searches are often more extensive.
What Do Unemployed People Say
Justin Miller was made redundant as a lifeguard in July. He is a graduate who has applied for more than 100 jobs, but has not once been invited to an interview.
“I’ve been looking for opportunities, but I just haven’t had any luck with anything I’ve been doing,” he told the BBC.
“There’s a lot of jobs out there locally with local shops, but I’ve been competing against other people that could have been made redundant with 10, 20 years’ experience, so I’ve got no chance of getting those jobs.
“Most of the time I’m not even hearing anything back. It’s just been really difficult,” he says.
“It definitely plays on your mental health. There’s a lot of thoughts that go on in your head because you’ve had so much rejection.
“It’s a question of keeping myself motivated and not letting it get me down too much.”
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Table 2 Us Unemployment Rate By Race Gender And Age September 2020 To September 2021
On Friday, President Biden touted steady progress, widespread improvement, and increased employment over the first eight months of his presidency. The president pointed out that the unemployment rate for Black workers, in September, was below 8% for the first time in 17 months. However, the unemployment rate for Black workers remains 3.1 percentage points higher than the national average and 1.9 percentage points above its level in February 2020. There is still progress to be made in the economic recovery to return Black workers to their pre-pandemic employment levels. But the goal should not be solely a return to pre-pandemic levels of employment, a level that has historically been higher than the national average. The goal should be to shift labor dynamics and end systemic and structural racism and discrimination that have led to the racial disparities in employment that we see today.
Job Losses During The Pandemic Quickly Dwarfed The Great Recession
Two million claims a week is just hard to imagine, said Aaronson, who previously served on the Federal Reserve Board. The numbers of claims were seeing now are outside of historical experience.
For perspective, she pointed to the rise in unemployment between 2007 and 2009 during the Great Recession. Since the pandemic started, the nation lost twice as many jobs in two months as it did during the entire Great Recession, Aaronson said.
In early April, 42 states had some kind of stay-at-home order in place, and jobless claims ballooned. Now, as more states move to allow businesses to reopen, the increase has slowed. But its still growing, suggesting that the kickstart for commerce after strict social distancing isnt enough to get things back to normal.
And there could be a second wave of layoffs, said Till von Wachter, economist and professor at University of California at Los Angeles.
Businesses that hit the pause button may find that business is not as good as they had hoped when they return, he said.
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Are There Signs Of The Job Market Getting Better
The ONS said that the latest figures show “early signs” of a recovery in the jobs market.
There was a rise in the number of vacancies, to the highest level since the pandemic began.
Some businesses, like restaurants and bars, now say they are struggling to find the workers they need to reopen.
The number of people being made redundant has also been falling, though it is still higher than it was before the pandemic began.
Global Employment: What Is The World Employment Rate
We have a new measure of global employment from the International Labour Organization . Late last night the ILO published their Global Employment Trends 2011.
The report shows that as the population of the world approaches 7 billion people, 3 billion are employed and 205 million are unemployed.
Before we jump to any conclusions about these base figures, let’s take a quick look at how the data was gathered and the error bounds given, then we will take a look at what the figures mean.
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Breakdown Of Participation Rate By Race And Gender
These charts give a glimpse into those whose labor participation was most affected by the pandemic. For Black and Hispanic people, the drops in labor participation were more dramatic than that of their white counterparts with notable gaps between their rates of participation during the pandemic and their pre-pandemic norms. Each drop not only represents those without a job, but more specifically, those who have had to drop out of the labor force entirely.
Structural barriers, such as the location of jobs, alignment of the skillsets of workers to available work, lack of childcare or even discriminatory practices, have influence on who participates in the labor force.
I call it the spigot effect, said Rodgers. For certain groups, you have to take into account how much the faucet is turned on.
When workers face enough barriers to drop out of the labor force entirely, they no longer appear in the headline unemployment rate at all.
Although 4.8% may sound like a job market in healthy recovery, the truth is that the pandemic is still being felt across the labor market and it is hurting those who can least afford it.
How Is Us Unemployment Data Collected
Official U.S. employment statistics are produced by the BLS, an agency within the Department of Labor. Every month the Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce, conducts the Current Population Survey using a sample of around 60,000 households, or around 110,000 individuals.
These surveys are conducted in person or over the phone. The responses are categorized by race, ethnicity, age, veteran status, and gender, all of whichalong with geographyadd nuance to the employment data. The sample is rotated so that 75% of the households are constant from month to month and 50% are from year to year.
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Street Closures For The 2021 Tcs New York City Marathon
Q: What about “gig workers,” like rideshare drivers and the self-employed?A: Those folks are counted in a whole separate program called Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, which is a new, temporary program created by the CARES Act in late March for people not eligible for traditional unemployment compensation. The Labor Department says about 7.8 million people were claiming benefits under that program in total, as of the week that ended May 9.
Q: So … what’s the actual total?A: Different people will look at different numbers and take different signals from them as to the health of the job market. Plus, while the latest initial claims number goes through the week ended May 23, the continuing claims number goes through May 16 and the PUA number goes through May 9. So, it’s not necessarily apples-to-apples in all respects. That said, the Labor Department says of as May 9, the unadjusted number of people claiming any kind of out-of-work benefit nationwide was just shy of 31 million.
That 31 million number includes an unadjusted 22.7 million people on regular state unemployment, plus 7.8 million people on the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, and a few hundred thousand people getting benefits under other programs, including those for federal employees and newly discharged military veterans.
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Younger Generations Already Hit By Covid
But the cohort most affected by the pandemic-fueled economic crisis may be those who havent yet joined the labor market, said John Friedman, an economist and professor at Brown University.
If you graduate into a bad economy, theres a permanent impact on earning potential and lost wages, Friedman said.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Already in California, younger generations of workers have been particularly hard-hit, according to an analysis of state jobless claims conducted by the California Policy Lab. In their study, a third of Generation Z workers and a quarter of Millennials have filed for unemployment insurance, compared to roughly one out of five Baby Boomers and Generation X workers.
Recessions are difficult for everyone, but especially so for high school graduates, von Wachter said. For many, he said, the recession unfolding now will scar them for the next decade of their lives. Among those in California who completed their high school education but did not graduate from college, the recent study shows half have applied for jobless benefits.
People may find a job, but its at much lower pay than what they did before, he said.
Left: FILE PHOTO: People who lost their jobs wait in line to file for unemployment following an outbreak of the coronavirus disease , at an Arkansas Workforce Center in Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S. April 6, 2020. Photo by REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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How Long Will Jobless Benefits Last
Before COVID-19 came into the picture, unemployment insurance varied greatly state to state. Capping out at 12 weeks, Floridas was the shortest benefit. Massachusetts offers the longest time period that people can collect up to 30 weeks unless federal benefits or ample jobs are available. That means if you are covered through a federal program, or if you lose your job during a period of low unemployment when its conceivably easier to find a new job, Massachusetts doesnt offer the full benefit period. Most states typically offer up to 26 weeks of benefits, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
The CARES Act enabled all states to choose to offer 13 more weeks of benefits, called Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Assistance. Thirty states have accepted those benefits, which are funded by the federal government and expire on Dec. 31.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
But theres a lag in how many people have applied for unemployment insurance and how many people are actually getting it. So far, von Wachter said, roughly 20 million Americans have received unemployment insurance.
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
The statistics in this section are gathered from the LAUS Program. This program provides estimates of labor force and the unemployment rate, by place of residence.For more information read our LAUS Program Information Sheet and go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ website.
County Unemployment Rate
*To access historical data, scroll down to the bottom of the table and click , specify Date Range “From, To” then choose whether you want to Preview/Print or download in a specific format .*
The Unemployment Figures In Detail
The total number of unemployed is 8.4 million, lower than July’s 8.7 million. The number of long-term unemployed dropped to 3.2 million. A smaller number, 2.1 million, lost jobs within the last five weeks. This number declined by 174,000 from July’s 2.3 million.
The real unemployment rate was 8.8% in August, 0.4 percentage points lower than in July. This alternate measure of unemployment, known as U-6, gives a broader definition of unemployment. It includes people who would like a job but haven’t looked for one in the past month. It also includes those who are underemployed and marginally attached.
The real unemployment rate contains 392,000 discouraged workers, down from 507,000 in July and 617,000 in June. Discouraged workers are people who have given up looking for work but would take a job if offered. They are not counted in the unemployment rate because they haven’t looked for a job in the past four weeks.
The labor force participation rate was 61.7%there was no change from July. The labor force doesn’t include those who haven’t looked for a job in the past month. Some would like a job, but others dropped out of the labor force for different reasons. They may have retired, gone back to school, or had a baby.
What’s Next For The Unemployed
At this point, some jobless people may need to find work out of desperation, even if it means having to scramble for childcare or put their health at risk. And that’s downright unfortunate. But at this point, it doesn’t look like lawmakers will reinstate unemployment benefits for those who have recently seen it run out.
Similarly, it doesn’t look like a fourth stimulus check is in the cards for 2022. While the number of new jobless claims has risen in recent weeks, the economy is still in a much better place now than it was back when the American Rescue Plan was signed into law. And so those who are banking on another stimulus round may be in for a big disappointment.
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History Of Unemployment In Canada
Unemployment has risen on average since the mid-1960s, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the labour force . Annual average unemployment rates of 3 to 5 per cent were common before 1958 and from 1964 to 1969. From 1958 to 1963 and in the early 1970s, 5 to 7 per cent rates prevailed.
Over most of the post-1975 period, employment also grew, but the labour force grew even more rapidly so that the number and fraction that were unemployed rose. During the recession of the early 1980s , the unemployment rate jumped. In August 1981, employment declined, as did labour-force participation and the fraction of the working-age population that was employed . The unemployment rate rose steadily over the period to December 1982, reaching 13.1 per cent. This is thought to be the highest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate peaked at 19.3 per cent. The unemployment rate was gradually reduced to about 7 per cent in the late 1980s, but rose sharply again during the recession of the early 1990s, peaking at 12.1 per cent in November 1992.
After the recession of the early 1990s , employment recovered slowly, and, as a result, a drop in the unemployment rate was delayed until 1994. Strong employment growth from 1997 to 2000 brought the unemployment rate down to 6.8 per cent in January 1999. Unemployment spiked again briefly in the early 2000s, before resuming its decline in September 2003.
What Are Economists Saying
Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said the pandemic continued to bring “turbulence” to the UK jobs market.
“The extension of the furlough scheme through to March is welcome as it has given directors certainty to plan ahead for their staff. Unfortunately, the change appears to have come too late in the day for some.”
Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “While there was a rise in the number of job vacancies, this is more likely to reflect a temporary bounce as the economy reopened before recent restrictions were reintroduced, rather than a meaningful upturn in demand for labour.
He said the extension to the furlough scheme would safeguard a significant number of jobs in the short term.
“However, with firms facing another wave of severely diminished cashflow and revenue and with gaps in government support persisting, further substantial rises in unemployment remain likely in the coming months.”
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You Probably Need More Friendsheres How To Make Them
A big challenge she faces is dealing with fighting off the debilitating feelings of depression, anxiety and fear of what will happen in the future. This is a common theme among the dozens of people with whom I spoke with for this piece.
Sandra Remorenkowas told by her boss via a phone call that her services were no longer required. There was no empathy or compassionjust a curt goodbye and good luck.
Remorenko was an executive assistant to the head of a high-end wealth management firm located in an exclusive suburb of Atlanta. Prior to that role, Remorenko was an executive assistant to a prominent CPA firm founder and CEO. She had also worked at a top-tier private bank.
Despite her credentials and sending out over 100 résumés and applications, cold calling companies and recruiters, she didnt get any responses. Remorenko said that she reached out to everyone she knew and even applied for entry-level positions. Her few interviews were cold and callous. One company demanded that she prepare something creative, like a video or sing a song. She was told in order to work at that hiring company, You have to be a magician. She complied with the outlandish request, but never heard back.
Remorenko is greatly concerned over her situation. Some days, she feels totally overwhelmed and finds it hard to sleep well, stating she cant turn off brain.
She notices a cognitive dissonance between what she’s been told to do and her new reality.