Friday, May 20, 2022

What Are The Unemployment Numbers

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Wage Subsidies A Gift For Employers

Unemployment numbers continue to be low in Florida

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives projects that many employers will receive more through the program than they lose in revenue. As such, the wage subsidy has become controversial because it could turn into a substantial gift to employers and potentially be repaid through cuts to social services in the future.

There are additional concerns that nothing is in place to ensure employers pay the remaining 25 per cent of workers wages, or that large employers arent able to take undue advantage of the program.

However, some in the labour movement support a wage subsidy program as a way to keep people in their jobs and reduce the long-term employment disruptions caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

In this vein, countries like Denmark have instituted more worker-friendly versions of a wage subsidy. The difference is that Denmark has much greater union coverage and a collective bargaining system where unions and employer associations largely negotiate contracts at the industry level. More co-ordinated labour relations systems like this give unions much greater power to shape policy.

In Canada, where private sector union density is just 16 per cent and contracts are mostly work-site based, workers lack comparable institutional power. In this sense, more co-ordinated economies with robust labour regulations are better able to manage the employment and social consequences of the pandemic.

How Many People Are Unemployed Now

The most recent unemployment rate – for January to March, when most of the restrictions were still in place – was 4.8%, according to the Office for National Statistics .

The that means about one in 20 people who want a job can’t find one.

That’s more than at the start of the pandemic.

However, despite lockdown, the unemployment rate has fallen slightly since the autumn.

This has surprised most economists, who were expecting unemployment to be much higher.

It is partly because businesses have become better at coping with lockdowns, as well as the government spending billions of pounds supporting jobs.

The Erosion Of Employment Insurance

At its strongest in the 1970s when it covered over two-thirds of workers who experienced unemployment, EI has been drastically overhauled over the past decades. Fewer than half of unemployed workers now receive benefits. Onerous eligibility criteria and a low wage replacement rate of only 55 per cent up to a maximum of insurable earnings make the program both a shell of its former self and a laggard compared to more generous unemployment insurance programs in Europe.

In response to the inadequacy of EI, the federal government introduced the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit . The CERBs $500 weekly benefit will help some workers who do not qualify for EI, such as the self-employed and other freelance workers.

However, its impact is also limited by eligibility criteria that dictate workers must be without labour income or have not voluntarily quit their job because of COVID-19. This leaves out workers on reduced hours or whose bosses refuse to lay them off, as well as those who wish to leave unsafe working conditions.

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Overall Rate Compared To Alternate Measures Of Unemployment

The official monthly report does also contain other measures of unemployment. The BLSs uses another metric known as the U-6 which not only considers the people out of work, but also those who are working part-time jobs when they want more, or have stopped looking for work though they would say yes if actually offered a job. That rate was 8.5% in September.

LISEP goes even further. Its true rate of unemployment not only considers those who are discouraged or under employed, but also includes anyone who is making less than $20,000 a year.

Gene Ludwig, chair of LISEP, says it is essential to consider wages when we examine true unemployment because of what wages say about the ability of the economy to provide a decent living for its people.

Numbers as high as were seeing ought to be deeply disturbing to any leader in the country, because it means were not, right now, a country thats able to do this, he said. Were not providing a decent life for our people.

He is also careful to note that $20,000 is a very conservative cutoff that is based on the lowest living wage in all of the states. In many states, even those making higher amounts would not be close to a living wage, suggesting that the TRU rate may be an undercount as well.

How To Use The Unemployment Rate

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Keep in mind that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It tells you what has already happened, since employers only lay off workers after business slows down.

The unemployment rate isn’t lagging as much as usual because the pandemic is still creating sudden changes.

Companies resist hiring new workers when a recession is over until they can be sure that the economy will stay strong. The economy could improve for months, and the recession could be over before the unemployment rate drops. It’s not suitable for predicting trends, but it’s useful for confirming them.

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What The Us Unemployment Rate Doesnt Tell You

The true measure of unemployment depends on who you ask

Just how healthy is the US jobs market? On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest jobs report, showing that the US added a disappointing 194,000 jobs last month while announcing that the official unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the lowest its been since its frightening climb to 14.7% when the Covid-19 pandemic first struck the US.

The figures seem somehow disconnected and, for some, Septembers headline figure is woefully misleading, as it is every month. What if the true unemployment rate is actually closer to 22%?

Comparison Of Employment Recovery Across Recessions And Financial Crises

One method of analyzing the impact of recessions on employment is to measure the period of time it takes to return to the pre-recession employment peak. By this measure, the 20082009 recession was considerably worse than the five other U.S. recessions from 1970 to present. By May 2013, U.S. employment had reached 98% of its pre-recession peak after approximately 60 months. Employment recovery following a combined recession and financial crisis tends to be much longer than a typical recession. For example, it took Norway 8.5 years to return to its pre-recession peak employment after its 1987 financial crisis and it took Sweden 17.8 years after its 1991 financial crisis. The U.S. is recovering considerably faster than either of these countries.

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How High Could Unemployment Go

Most economists expect the unemployment rate to rise a little later this year even though it is hoped more restrictions can be lifted.

That is because many government support schemes – such as furlough – are due to end after September.

The Bank of England expects the unemployment rate to reach around 5.5% in the autumn.

However, the number of unemployed is expected to fall next year as the economy continues to recover.

What Job Creation Rate Is Required To Lower The Unemployment Rate

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Estimates

Estimates vary for the number of jobs that must be created to absorb the inflow of persons into the labor force, to maintain a given rate of unemployment. This number is significantly affected by demographics and population growth. For example, economist Laura D’Andrea Tyson estimated this figure at 125,000 jobs per month during 2011.

Economist Paul Krugman estimated it around 90,000 during 2012, mentioning also it used to be higher. One method of calculating this figure follows, using data as of September 2012: U.S. population 314,484,000 x 0.90% annual population growth x 63% of population is working age x 63% work force participation rate / 12 months per year = 93,614 jobs/month. This approximates the Krugman figure.

Federal Reserve analysts estimated this figure around 80,000 in June 2013: “According to our analysis, job growth of more than about 80,000 jobs per month would put downward pressure on the unemployment rate, down significantly from 150,000 to 200,000 during the 1980s and 1990s. We expect this trend to fall to around 35,000 jobs per month from 2016 through theremainder of the decade.”

Empirical data

During the 41 months from January 2010 to May 2013, there were 19 months where the unemployment rate declined. On average, 179,000 jobs were created in those months. The median job creation during those months was 166,000.

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Demographics And Employment Trends

Employment trends can be analyzed by any number of demographic factors individually or in combination, such as age, gender, educational attainment, and race. A major trend underlying the analysis of employment numbers is the aging of the white workforce, which is roughly 70% of the employment total by race as of November 2016. For example, the prime working age white population declined by 4.8 million between December 2007 and November 2016, roughly 5%, while non-white populations are increasing. This is a major reason why non-white and foreign-born workers are increasing their share of the employed. However, white prime-age workers have also had larger declines in labor force participation than some non-white groups, for reasons not entirely clear. Such changes may have important political implications.

A03 Sa: Employment Unemployment And Economic Inactivity For Men Aged From 16 To 64 And Women Aged From 16 To 59

Employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for men aged from 16 to 64 and women aged from 16 to 59 . The employment and inactivity rates shown in this table were the headline employment and inactivity rates until August 2010, when ONS replaced these headline rates with rates for those aged from 16 to 64 for both men and women. These new headline rates for those aged from 16 to 64 are shown in Table A02 SA. These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.

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How To Submit Reports

When you applied for benefits, Service Canada mailed you a benefit statement. This statement included a 4-digit access code. You need this code and your social insurance number to submit your reports.

You can submit your reports using the Internet Reporting Service or the Telephone Reporting Service.

The EI reporting calendar can help you keep track of your hours and earnings.

Difference Between The Unemployment And Jobs Reports

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The unemployment rate and figures from the jobs report don’t always tell the same story because they are taken from two different surveys.

The unemployment rate is taken from the household survey of individuals. It describes who is employed and who isn’t based on their responses.

The number of jobs added is taken from the establishment report, more commonly called the nonfarm payroll report. This survey of businesses describes how many jobs were created or lost by industry.

The number of unemployed doesn’t match the number of jobs lost because these reports are taken from completely different sources. Those discrepancies are expected, and the estimates are revised each month as more data comes in.

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Persons With Multiple Jobs

The BLS reported that in 2017, there were approximately 7.5 million persons age 16 and over working multiple jobs, about 4.9% of the population. This was relatively unchanged from 2016. About 4 million worked a full-time primary job and part-time secondary job. A 2020 study based on a Census Bureau survey estimated a higher share of multiple jobholders, with 7.8% of persons in the U.S. working multiple jobs as of 2018 the study found that this percentage has been trending upward during the past twenty years and that earnings from second jobs are, on average, 27.8% of a multiple jobholder’s earnings.

Quarterly Rebenchmarking Of Labour Force Statistics

The ABS has revised the original Labour Force series from April 2020 to reflect the latest available preliminary and final estimates of the Estimated Resident Population. This quarterly process ensures that the Labour Force series promptly reflect any change in population trends and minimises the size of revisions that can occur when the series are rebenchmarked following each Census of Population and Housing.

In response to COVID-19 related changes in travel, the ABS has been revising preliminary Net Overseas Migration estimates more frequently. Net Overseas Migration estimates are a component of population estimates, from which Labour Force benchmarks are produced. These revisions have been incorporated into the quarterly rebenchmarking revisions. For more information, please refer to ‘Net Overseas Migration revisions in Labour Force benchmarks during COVID-19‘.

The usual resident civilian population in September 2021 was revised down by around 0.11% .

Revisions to original series also result in revisions to seasonally adjusted series.

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Unemployment And Inflationcanadas Worrying Numbers

With the inflation debate in Canada focusing on whether this inflation is transitory or not, weve seen little discussion about how our inflation compares with other advanced economies.

The International Monetary Fund released its update of the World Economic Outlook Database in October and there are now updated estimates for 2021 and beyond. While monthly consumer inflation in Canada is currently pushing 5 per cent, our consumer inflation for 2021as estimated by the International Monetary Fund using consumer pricesis expected to be closer to 4 per cent.

For the major 35 IMF advanced economies, consumer inflation in 2021 is expected to average 2.8 per cent, putting Canada well above the average. The rates are expected to range from highs of 7 per cent for Estonia and 5 per cent for the United States to lows of just under 1 per cent for Switzerland and Japan. At 3.8 per cent, Canadas inflation rate for 2021 is expected to rank 6th highest of the 35 IMF advanced economies.

Of course, some might argue that a little inflation might be just the lubricant needed to help pandemic-stricken economies rebound given the traditional macroeconomic relationship between inflation and unemployment, which posits an inverse relationship between the two variables. That is, high inflation rates have been associated with low unemployment rates whereas lower inflation rates have often been accompanied by higher unemployment rates.

Unemployment And Racialized Canadians

New job report today to display unemployment numbers

Statistics Canada defines racialized Canadians as persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.Though racialized Canadians participated in the labour force at a rate higher than non-racialized Canadians, 9.2 per cent of racialized Canadians were unemployed in 2016, compared to 7.3 per cent of non-racialized Canadians. Arab Canadians had an 85 per cent higher unemployment rate and Black Canadians a 71 per cent higher rate than non-racialized Canadians gaps in unemployment that were consistent with 2006 census results. In 2016, racialized women had the highest unemployment rate, at 9.6 per cent. While non-racialized women had a lower unemployment rate than non-racialized men, unemployment among racialized women was higher than among racialized men .

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Employment Insurance Reporting Calendar

While youre receiving EI benefits, you must submit a report every 2 weeks to show that youre eligible and to continue receiving benefits. On this report, you need to enter the total earnings and hours worked for each week. The reporting calendar can help you keep track of your hours and earnings.

You need to report hours and earnings from each job, including self-employment.

How to fill in the reporting calendar

  • At the top of the calendar, enter the dates for the weeks youre reporting. Use Sunday as the first day and Saturday as the last day of the week. For example, Sunday, September 6 to Saturday, September 12
  • In the Hours column, enter the total number of full and partial hours worked each day. For example, 8.25 hours
  • In the Earnings column, enter the total earnings before deductions for each day of the week you worked. Include all earnings, such as tips, commissions or vacation pay
  • Add up the Hours column and enter the total in the Total to report for this week box. Report only full hours. Round down to the nearest hour do not round up. For example, if you worked 38.5 hours, you would enter 38 hours
  • Add up the Earnings column and enter the total in the Total to report for this week box. Round your total earnings to the nearest dollar. For example, if your earnings were $125.49, enter $125. If your earnings were $125.50, enter $126
  • When it comes time to complete your report, enter the total amounts from your calendar where required
  • Sunday

    Monday

    Tuesday

    What’s The Difference Between U

    U-3 is the headline unemployment number that we see in the news. It looks at those out-of-work Americans who have been looking for a job within the past four weeks. The more comprehensive U-6 includes everyone in U-3 plus those with only temporary work and people who are considered marginally attached to the labor force. These include those who have stopped looking for a job, as well as those part-time workers that would otherwise want full-time work, if not for economic reasons.

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    Not Seasonally Adjusted Data

    Virginias unadjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points in November to 2.7 percent, and was down 2.8 percentage points from a year ago. Compared to a year ago, the number of unemployed decreased by 117,923, household employment increased by 121,577, and the labor force increased by 3,654. Virginias not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continues to be below the national unadjusted rate, which declined by 0.4 percentage points in November to 3.9 percent. Compared to last month, the November unadjusted workweek for Virginias 154,300 manufacturing production workers remained unchanged at 41.5 hours. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production workers increased by $.01 to $21.16 in November and average weekly earnings increased $0.41 to $878.14.

    The statistical reference week for the household survey this month was the week of November 7-13, 2021.

    The Virginia Employment Commission plans to release the November local area unemployment rates on Thursday, December 30, 2021. The data will be available on our website www.VirginiaWorks.com. The December statewide unemployment rate and employment data for both the state and metropolitan areas are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 25, 2022.

    Files detailing November’s unemployment numbers are available below:

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