Ap Fact Check: Trump On Unemployment For Blacks Latinos
WASHINGTON A look at one of President Donald Trumps statements from his State of the Union address on Tuesday night and how it compares with the facts:
TRUMP: African-American, Hispanic-American and Asian-American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded.
THE FACTS: What hes not saying is that the unemployment rates for all three groups have gone up since reaching record low levels.
Black unemployment reached a record low, 5.9 percent, in May, but rose to 6.8 percent in January.
Latino unemployment fell to 4.4 percent, its lowest ever, last October, and Asian unemployment fell to a record low of 2.2 percent in May. But Latino and Asian unemployment also have increased, in part because of the government shutdown, which elevated unemployment last month.
The African-American rate is still nearly double the jobless rate for whites, at 3.5 percent.
The most dramatic drop in black unemployment came under President Barack Obama, when it fell from a recession high of 16.8 percent in March 2010 to 7.8 percent in January 2017.
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Trends And Cyclicality Of Black
Before turning to a detailed examination of micro-level data, we examine the macroeconomic relationship between black and white unemployment and business cycle conditions. Beyond establishing context for this article, it is helpful to discuss and update the estimates provided in , which are often cited as evidence that blacks are the last hired and the first fired over the business cycle. Similar estimates can be found in , , , , and .
Using annual data from 1947 to 1972, explored the last in, first out hypothesis by estimating separate regressions for labor market outcomes that include a trend variable and deviation of real gross national product from its trend by race. For log unemployment rates, he found similar coefficient estimates on log real GNP deviations for black and white men, implying that the two groups experience the same proportionate response to the cycle. Freeman then noted that when the economy weakens, the unemployment rate of blacksalways higher than that of whitesrises by a larger number of percentage points and results in a larger relative decline in employment . He concluded that these estimates support the last hired, first fired pattern of black employment over the cycle.
Summary Of Unemployment By Ethnicity And Age Summary
The data shows that:
- in every age group, White people had a lower unemployment rate than people from all other ethnic groups combined
- 16 to 24 year olds were more likely to be unemployed than any other age group, both for White people and all other ethnic groups combined
- among 16 to 24 year olds, 10% of White people were unemployed, compared with 19% of people from all other ethnic groups combined â the largest gap of any age group
- White people also had lower unemployment rates than people from all other ethnic groups combined among 25 to 49 year olds , 50 to 64 year olds and over 65s
Effective Health Economic Policies Needed To Combat Widening Racial Labor Market Disparities
The CARES Act enhanced unemployment insurance in various ways, providing crucial support for unemployed workers and the economy. None of these enhancements is scheduled to last beyond years end, however the weekly $600 UI benefits boost expired July 31, and Republican policymakers have proposed far less than that in their initial offer for the next relief package. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that without further relief or stimulus legislation, unemployment in the first quarter of 2021 will exceed 9 percent and will not fall below 6 percent until the second half of 2024.
Experience from past recessions strongly suggests that even if the economy is formally out of the recession and economic activity is expanding, unemployment will still be high and racial employment disparities still widening, as discussed further below. This is what happened in the Great Recession. Congress and Presidents Bush and Obama enacted substantial stimulus measures starting in 2008, most notably the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in February 2009, which had its peak impact on the economy in 2010. As shown in Figure 1, unemployment continued to rise after the recession formally ended in June 2009. The gap between the Black and white unemployment rates continued to widen through 2011 and didnt fall below its pre-recession level until much later in the long 2009-2020 expansion.
Racial Disparities In Labor Market Outcomes Persist Even In Recoveries
The Black-white unemployment rate gap has a distinct cyclical pattern of widening in weak labor markets and generally narrowing but not being erased when the labor market is strong, as Figure 1 shows. Theres a similar pattern for the Hispanic-white gap, if less pronounced in the 2003 post-recession episode.
Figure 5 highlights what might be less obvious in Figure 1, which is that the racial/ethnic unemployment gaps widen in recessions and keep widening as the economy begins to recover. The Black unemployment rate, in particular, not only rises faster than the white rate in a recession but also peaks later and comes down more slowly in a recovery. In the Great Recession episode, for example, the difference between the Black unemployment rate and the white rate was greatest nearly two years after the Great Recession ended and did not narrow to its pre-recession level until almost a decade later.
Glossary of Labor Market Status Terms
Statistics on peoples labor market outcomes reported in the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are estimated from a survey of households asking a series of questions to determine who in the household aged 16 and over and not in the military or an institution had a job in the week containing the 12th of the month, who did not, and why not.
A person aged 16 and over with a job in that week who worked:
- at least 35 hours is employed
- less than 35 hours but wanted to be working more hours is employed .
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Table 1 Us Unemployment Rate By Race April 2021 To June 2021
Table 2 shows the U.S. unemployment rate by race, gender, and age from June 2020 to June 2021. On average, Black teens ages 16 to 19 had the highest unemployment rate over the 13-month period, at 19.4%, while white men over 20 had the lowest, at 6.1%.
The new jobs numbers come as more Americans receive COVID-19 vaccinations, companies offer bonuses and increased wages to incentivize job seekers, and states cut unemployment benefits.
By July 1, 2021, 155.8 million Americans were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But there are racial disparities in the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, of the 57% of people who had received at least one dose of the vaccine and whose race/ethnicity was known, 60% were white, 15% were Latino or Hispanic, 9% were Black, 6% were Asian American, and 1% were Native American.
With increased vaccinations, many states lifted restrictions and fully reopened. On June 11, Illinois fully reopened, lifting capacity limits, social distancing requirements, and mask mandates at most businesses, while bars, restaurants, and other establishments were allowed to resume normal operating hours. By June 15, 70% of New York residents 18 years of age and older had received at least one dose of the vaccine, allowing the state to reopen two weeks ahead of the previously announced July 1 reopening date.
Black Unemployment Rate Is Consistently Twice That Of Whites
Much has changed for African-Americans since the 1963 March on Washington , but one thing hasnt: The unemployment rate among blacks is about double that among whites, as it has been for most of the past six decades.
In 1954, the earliest year for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics has consistent unemployment data by race, the white rate averaged 5% and the black rate averaged 9.9%. Last month, the jobless rate among whites was 6.6% among blacks, 12.6%. Over that time, the unemployment rate for blacks has averaged about 2.2 times that for whites.
The widest gaps, when black unemployment was as much as 2.77 times that of white unemployment, came in the late 1980s, as the manufacturing sectors that employed disproportionate shares of African-Americans shriveled. The smallest gaps, ironically, came in the summer of 2009 during the Great Recession white unemployment rose so high, so fast, that the black jobless rate was only 1.67 times higher.
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Trump Takes Undue Credit On Black Unemployment
Firing back at criticism from Jay-Z, President Donald Trump went too far when he claimed the black unemployment rate is the lowest in recorded history because of my policies.
While its true that the black unemployment rate recently reached its lowest level in decades, the rate has been in steady decline for about the last seven years.
Trump has boastedrepeatedly about the record-low unemployment among African Americans. But in response to criticisms leveled by rap mogul Shawn Jay-Z Carter in a on CNN, Trump took full credit for the milestone in black unemployment.
Jay-Z said reports that the president called African nations shitholes was disappointing and hurtful because hes, like, looking down on a whole population of people.
Somebody please inform Jay-Z that because of my policies, Black Unemployment has just been reported to be at the LOWEST RATE EVER RECORDED!
Donald J. Trump
As the chart below illustrates, the black unemployment rate has been in a years-long downward trend that continued under Trump. The part in red represents the months under Trumps presidency
When Trump took office in January 2017, the black unemployment rate was 7.8 percent, the lowest it had been in nearly 10 years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Under Trump, it dropped a full percentage point to 6.8 percent in December. Thats the lowest rate since the bureau began regularly breaking out unemployment rates by race in 1972.
Black Youth Unemployment Rate Of 40% Similar To Time Of Brixton Riots Data Shows
Guardian analysis shows young black workers hit disproportionately hard by Covid pandemic
Young black workers have been hit disproportionately hard during the pandemic, according to Guardian analysis, with more than 40% unemployed three times worse than white workers of the same age.
Forty years on from the Brixton riots, which spread across the UK during a recession in which black people lost their jobs in disproportionate numbers, experts are warning that coronavirus has exposed deep-rooted inequalities that still exist in the employment market.
The black youth unemployment rate was the same in the last quarter of 2020 as in the early 1980s, around the time the riots took place.
Between October and December 2020, 41.6% of black people aged 16-24 were unemployed the highest rate since the last financial crisis, Guardian analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics reveals. Unemployment among white workers of the same age stood at to 12.4%.
Before the pandemic, between January and March 2020, 10.6% of young white people were unemployed compared with 25.3% of young black people. Nine months later, the unemployment rate among young black people had shot up by 64.4% compared with 17% for their white counterparts, the ONS figures show.
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Policies To Craft An Inclusive Economic Recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an opportunity for policymakers to craft an economic recovery plan that does not leave anyone behind. In order to achieve this, recovery packages must include provisions that tackle structural racism, not just in the labor market but also throughout the economy. The following three policies would not only help close the Black-white unemployment gap but also provide a boost to the overall U.S. economy.
Strengthening worker power
Unions have been shown to reduce racial inequality by raising earnings and creating economic stability for African Americans. Policymakers should therefore encourage legislation that promotes the formation of unions and ensures collective bargaining rights. They should work to repeal right-to-work laws, which are more prevalent in Southern states with high African American populations pass legislation such as the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which would protect workers who want to organize and workers who engage in protests or strikes by enforcing penalties against employers who interfere and pass legislation such as the Public Service Freedom to Negotiate Act, which would ensure that all public employees, many of whom are African American, have the right to organize and collectively bargain.
More strongly enforce anti-discrimination laws
Reduce barriers for citizens reentering society
Black And Hispanic Unemployment Is At A Record Low
- The jobless rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 3.9% in September, while African Americans maintained its lowest rate ever, 5.5%.
- The unemployment rate for Asian Americans was 2.5% in September. The jobless rate for adult women came in at 3.1%.
There have never been more Black and Hispanic Americans in the workforce, Friday’s Labor Department job report showed.
The jobless rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 3.9% in September, while African Americans maintained its lowest rate ever, 5.5%.
The Hispanic women unemployment rate was 3.8% in September and the Black adult women jobless rate was 4.6%.
“The best numbers that we’ve ever had: African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Women, everything. We have the best numbers that we’ve had in many, many, many decades, ” President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday.
The unemployment rate for Asian Americans was 2.5% in September. The jobless rate for adult women came in at 3.1%.
Another bright-spot of the report was the overall unemployment rate. The jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, its lowest reading in 50 years. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 136,000 in September, below economists’ expectations of 145,000, according to Dow Jones.
“We have the best economy we’ve ever had, we have the best jobs numbers in 51 years, the best unemployment numbers that we’ve had in a half a century,” Trump added. “People are working, they’re making money.”
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Unemployment Rate By Race
This interactive chart compares the historical unemployment rate for the three largest ethnic groups in the United States. Note: Statistics for Asian unemployment are not included here as the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not start including this measure until 2000 and does not provide a seasonally adjusted series as yet. The current as of August 2021 is 8.80.
Despite Junes Positive Jobs Numbers Black Workers Continue To Face High Unemployment
The Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report for June, released today, showed a continuation of the steady economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, 850,000 jobs were added last month, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 5.9%, after falling from 6.1% in April to 5.8% in May.
This recovery, however, continues to be uneven across racial lines. Black workers had Junes highest unemployment rate, at 9.2%. Table 1 and Graph 1 show the U.S. unemployment rate by race for April, May, and June 2021.
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The Labor Market Is Designed To Create A Black
This 2-to-1 Black-white unemployment rate gap is not an accident: The labor market is designed to create it. In February 2020, the Center for American Progress wrote about the consistent and persistent 2-to-1 racialized unemployment gap, in part refuting the theory that tight labor markets can close this gap. The theory posits that in a tight labor marketwherein the economy is close to full employmentemployers are less likely to discriminate, allowing people traditionally on the margins of the labor market to finally get hired. Although this phenomenon may help explain the falling Black unemployment rate, it cannot explain the gap. Since unemployment data disaggregated by race first became available in 1972, African Americans have consistently shown an unemployment rate double that of whites. This 2-to-1 gap has persisted through some of the best economies and through some of the most severe economic downturns.
Transitions To Employment And Additional Transitions
Turning to the unemployment-to-employment transition estimates, which are reported in column 3 of panels A and B of , the signs of the parameters and the pattern of statistical significance are similar to when only two labor force states were considered. The one important exception is that the coefficient on the black unemployment rate interaction is now larger and statistically significant . Importantly, the coefficient estimate remains positive, indicating that the black-white gap in reemployment in the face of rising unemployment. This means that blacks have a higher rate of transition from unemployment into employment when business cycle conditions are poor. This finding is consistent with blacks being the first hired from the ranks of the unemployed as the economy moves through a trough and begins to grow while business cycle conditions are poor.
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Why The Drop In The Us Black Unemployment Rate May Not Be Good News
A woman holds fliers for a job fair for restaurant and hotel workers, after coronavirus disease restrictions were lifted, in Torrance, near Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 23, 2021. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Nearly 250,000 African Americans left the workforce and the total number employed fell by 12,000 – a measure that rose solidly for whites, Hispanics and Asians.
The numbers indicate the drop in the Black unemployment rate was driven not by more people finding jobs, but by a rise in the number of people setting their job searches aside.
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“We still have work to do,” U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Reuters on Friday. “I mean, we can’t completely celebrate this day.”
The share of Black people either working or looking for work, known as the labor force participation rate, also fell 0.8 point last month to 60.8%. That was a reversal of the gain in June, when the labor force participation rate for Black workers rose and exceeded that of white workers for the second time in history. White workers once again have the advantage, with a labor force participation rate of 61.6%.
Another factor that may have played a role in the shifting labor dynamics last month: rising COVID-19 infections.
“If more people were getting sick, having to take care of loved ones who got sick,” that could have interfered with their ability to work, Broady said.