Thursday, July 28, 2022

Is The Current Level Of Unemployment Rising Or Falling

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Employment Situation News Release

Unemployment rate shows resilience of the economy in the face of COVID-19
 HOUSEHOLD DATA Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

Category

Total, 16 years and over

5.8

Adult men

5.8

Adult women

5.3

Teenagers

9.6

Total, 25 years and over

5.1

Less than a high school diploma

8.9

High school graduates, no college

6.9

Some college or associate degree

6.0

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs

5,822

Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons

5,267

Slack work or business conditions

4,016

Could only find part-time work

998

Part time for noneconomic reasons

19,362

Persons not in the labor force

1,946
415-41

NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

HOUSEHOLD DATA

The Sharpest Rise In Unemployment Occurred In Service Occupations

In 2020, the unemployment rate increased for all five major occupational categories.6 The jobless rate for service occupations had the sharpest increase, rising by 8.6 percentage points over the year to reach 13.0 percent in 2020. Production, transportation, and material moving occupations had the second-largest increase, rising by 5.9 percentage points over the year to 10.2 percent in 2020. The pandemic and efforts to contain it had a substantial impact on these occupations. Within service occupations, food preparation and serving related occupations and personal care and service occupations were the most affected, with jobless rates that were nearly 4 times higher than they were in 2019. The jobless rates for natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations sales and office occupations and management, professional, and related occupations also rose sharply from 2019 to 2020.

The Unemployment Rate For People With A Disability Increased To A Double

Many people experienced challenging labor market conditions in 2020, including those with a disability. The unemployment rate for people with a disability, at 11.5 percent in the last quarter of 2020, remained much higher than the rate for people without a disability . The rate for those with a disability increased by 4.6 percentage points in 2020, compared with an increase of 3.1 percentage points for those without a disability.

Among the 29.9 million people ages 16 years and older with a disability in the fourth quarter of 2020, 6.1 million, or 20.3 percent, participated in the labor force. By contrast, the participation rate for people without disability was 66.8 percent. The lower rate for people with a disability reflects, in part, the older age profile of those with a disability older people, regardless of disability status, are less likely to be in the labor force. About half of all people with a disability were ages 65 and over, nearly 3 times the share of those with no disability.

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Figure : The Number Of People Unemployed For Up To Six Months Increased On The Quarter

UK unemployment by duration, people aged 16 years and over, seasonally adjusted, between February to April 2017 and February to April 2022

Those unemployed for up to six months increased over the latest three-month period, which is the largest increase since late 2020. However, this was offset by decreases in those unemployed for over six months, with those unemployed for between 6 and 12 months decreasing to a record low, and those unemployed for over 12 months continuing to decrease .

Although LFS single-month estimates, available in dataset X01, should be used with caution because of greater volatility than the headline LFS estimates, the latest single-month estimates show an increase in the unemployment rate between March and April 2022.

The Duration Of Unemployment Changed Markedly After The Initial Pandemic Shock

Largest employment rise in over 4 decades

The evolving effects of the pandemic on the labor market in 2020 were also evident in the changing estimates of the duration of unemployment during the year. For instance, as unemployment surged following the onset of the pandemic, there was an increase in the number of people who were newly unemployedthat is, those unemployed for less than 5 weeks. Those who were unemployed for less than 5 weeks accounted for 34.7 percent of the total unemployed in the last quarter of 2019 that figure increased to 40.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, when the effects of the pandemic first became noticeable. After peaking early in the second quarter, the share of the unemployed who were unemployed for less than 5 weeks began to decrease and the number of those unemployed for 5 to 14 weeks began to increase.

The share of those unemployed for 5 to 14 weeks rose from 29.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 54.1 percent in the second quarter of 2020, before it began to decline. As the year progressed, the initial surge in unemployment continued to move through the longer duration categories. By the third quarter of 2020, the number of people who were unemployed for 15 to 26 weeks represented the largest share of the total unemployed, at 42.1 percent.

24.335.3

Note: Note: Data for people unemployed less than 5 weeks and 27 weeks or longer are seasonally adjusted. Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter, Q3 = third quarter, and Q4 = fourth quarter.

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Economy Adds 337000 Jobs In February Unemployment Rate Falls To Pre

Canada’s labour market showed signs last month of finally shaking off the shock COVID-19 delivered two years ago, with the share of workers with a job and the unemployment rate besting levels seen just prior to the pandemic.

A gain of 337,000 jobs in February more than offset the loss of 200,000 jobs in January and dropped the unemployment rate to 5.5 per cent, falling below the 5.7 per cent level where it was at in February 2020.

Statistics Canada said Friday the unemployment rate would have been 7.4 per cent last month had it included in calculations people who wanted a job but did not look for one.

The majority of the decline in the ranks of Canada’s unemployed came from people called back to work in February after a temporary layoff one month earlier as provinces tightened restrictions to slow the spread of the Omicron variant.

As restrictions eased, eight provinces saw job increases, although Alberta and New Brunswick stayed flat. Gains were notable in sectors hardest hit by public health restrictions, including accommodation and food services, which added 114,000 jobs.

The proportion of the working-age population with a job also rose in February to 61.8 per cent, marking the first time that rate returned to its pre-pandemic level. The employment and participation rates for core-age working women reached their highest levels on record.

Overall, Statistics Canada said the labour force in February was 1.9 per cent, or 369,100 jobs, above levels recorded in February 2020.

Nickel Price Forecasts: Long

Nickel prices were up 44% year-over-year in May 2021, from $12,179 to $17,577 per metric ton. Since the 13-year low in February 2016, nickel prices have been showing strong cyclical growth. The World Bank, in its commodity forecast report, estimated that nickel prices will fall to a low of $16,000 per metric ton in 2022, but they expect the average spot price for nickel will grow slightly further after the correction, reaching $18,000 per metric ton by the end of the year. The IMF’s metal cost, insurance, and freight report revealed an expected rise from…

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Zone 1 Sharply Rising Employment Vs Falling Unemployment

Looking at the data in zone 1 we can see a correlation that makes sense. As the employment rate rises sharply from about 115 million in 1994 to about 130 million in 2000, the unemployment rate falls from around 7% to about 3.5% . If we look at the slope of the lines we can see that the slope of the employment line is steeper than the slope of the unemployment line. This makes sense because as the population increases it takes more jobs just to stay at the same unemployment level. According to the U.S. census bureau, in 1994, the population of the United States was 263,126,000 by the year 2000 the population of the U.S. was 282,172,000 or about 19 million more people. So assuming that roughly 50% of the additional 19 million people entered the labor force there were an additional 15 million jobs. So that would be enough to cover the new workers while at the same time reducing the unemployment rate as well. In general terms, we can see that the increase in population counteracts some of the increasing employment.

Actual And Usual Hours Worked

UK unemployment hits 48-year low, inflation squeezes real earnings | World News | WION

Statistics for usual hours workedmeasure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.

Workers temporarily absent from a job as a result of the coronavirus pandemic would still be classed as employed however, they would be employed working no hours. This has directly affected estimates of total actual hours worked during the coronavirus pandemic. Since the average actual weekly hours are the average of all in employment, those temporarily absent from a job also affected these estimates.

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An Increase In Precariousness

Australia’s labour market has been radically restructured in recent decades.

In the 1970s, policymakers abandoned the old full employment model of the post-World War II era.

They replaced it with a new model that allowed much higher levels of unemployment to suppress wages and inflation.

Since then, there haven’t been enough jobs to go around by design.

It has coincided with the casualisation of the workforce, rising underemployment and declining wages growth.

And according to economics Professor Ross Garnaut, ordinary Australians experienced a period of income stagnation between 2013 and 2020 that was unprecedented since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

He says 2013 to 2020 were Australia’s “Dog Days.”

He included the above graph in his 2021 book Reset: Restoring Australia after the Great Crash of 2020.

In that book, he said Australians could be forgiven for being angry.

“In the best of circumstances, by 2025, Australians will have lived through the longest period of real income stagnation in our national history,” he warned.

The Employment Situation In April

Todays jobs report shows that the economy added 428,000 jobs in April, for an average monthly gain of 523,000 over the past three months. The number of jobs added in April came in above market expectations. Employment in February and March was revised down by 39,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. The labor force participation rate fell from 62.4 percent to 62.2 percent, but still saw strong growth over the year. Nominal wages have risen by 5.5 percent over the last year, a forceful pace.

1.Average monthly job growth over the last three months was 523,000, a fast pace in keeping with recent months.

Job growth from February to April averaged 523,000 jobs per month . Since monthly numbers can be volatile and subject to revision, the Council of Economic Advisers prefers to focus on the three-month average rather than the data in a single month, as described in a prior CEA blog.

2. During the pandemic recovery, the labor market has seen extraordinary job growth. As the recovery continues, monthly job growth will likely begin to return to a pre-pandemic pace.

So far in 2022, job growth has averaged over 500,000 jobs per month. In contrast, from 2011 to 2019, job growth averaged about 194,000 jobs per month. Overall, the recovery from the pandemic recession has been much faster than after past recessions.

5. Nominal wage growth was solid in April 2022 and may be slowing.

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Unemployment Is High Why Are Businesses Struggling To Hire

Health concerns, expanded jobless benefits and still being needed at home are among the reasons would-be workers might be staying away.

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There are two distinct, and completely opposite, ways of looking at the American job market.

One would be to consult the data tables produced every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which suggest a plentiful supply of would-be workers. The unemployment rate is 6 percent, representing 9.7 million Americans who say they are actively looking for work.

Alternately, you could search for news articles mentioning labor shortage. You will find dozens in which businesses, especially in the restaurant and other service industries, say they face a potentially catastrophic inability to hire. The anecdotes come from the biggest metropolitan areas and from small towns, as well as from touristdestinations of all varieties.

If this apparent labor shortage persists, it will have huge implications for the economy in 2021 and beyond. It could act as a brake on growth and cause unnecessary business failures, long lines at remaining businesses, and rising prices.

The Unemployment Rate For Veterans Nearly Doubled Over The Year

The Labour Market during the 20082009 Downturn

There were 18.3 million veterans ages 18 and older in the civilian noninstitutional population in the fourth quarter of 2020. Veterans who served during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam era account for the largest share of the veteran population, at 6.7 million, followed by veterans who served during Gulf War era II and Gulf War era I . Four million veterans served on active duty during other service periods, mainly between the Korean War and the Vietnam era and between the Vietnam era and Gulf War era II.15 Among veterans, women accounted for 10 percent of the total veteran population in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate for veterans was 5.7 percent , up by 2.6 percentage points over the year. The unemployment rate for nonveterans, at 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter, increased by 3.3 percentage points over the year. Among the youngest veterans, the jobless rate for Gulf War-era II veterans , at 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, increased by 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier. The unemployment rate for male veterans, at 5.9 percent, increased by 3.0 percentage points over the year, while the jobless rate for female veterans, at 4.7 percent, changed little over the same period.

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Canadas Unemployment Rate Is Near Pre

Canadas economy is stronger than many might assume, with a low unemployment rate. The rate fell to 5.9% in October, just above the pre-pandemic 5.7% in February 2020. For context, the rate was around 6.5% when they began to raise interest rates in 2017. The economy was considered booming at a higher rate just a few years ago, but weak at a lower rate today.

Blacks Asians And Hispanics Were More Adversely Affected Than Whites By The Pandemic

In 2020, employment fell sharply for all race and ethnicity groups, as evidenced by declines in the employmentpopulation ratios for Whites, Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics.9 Improvements in the second half of the year were not substantial enough to make up for the steep drops that occurred in the second quarter. However, some groups were affected more than others. Although the ratio for Whites decreased by 3.2 percentage points over the year, to 57.9 percent, the declines in the employmentpopulation ratios for Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians were more pronounced. The ratio for Blacks decreased to 53.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, a loss of 5.1 percentage points over the year. The employmentpopulation ratios for Hispanics and Asians also fell sharply during 2020, with the ratio for Hispanics decreasing by 4.8 percentage points, to 59.6 percent, and the ratio for Asians decreasing by 4.4 percentage points, to 58.2 percent.

6.78.9

Note: Dash indicates data not available. Data for Asians are not available before 2000 and are not seasonally adjusted before 2010. People of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity may be of any race. Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter, Q3 = third quarter, and Q4 = fourth quarter.

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Aluminum Price Forecast: 2021 2022 And Long Term To 2035

The aluminum price reached the value of $2,534 per metric ton on May 7th of this year, the highest price since the two-year high in April 2018. The consensus forecast for 2021 from three leading sources is $2,072 per metric ton. The rise in aluminum prices is a result of high demand in China and growing concerns that China’s new climate policy, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, could limit future supply of the metal. In 2020, China…

Us Unemployment Rate Expected To Fall To 35% In April Job Gains To Slow

US inflation rate ‘very worrying’

A job seeker leaves the job fair for airport related employment at Logan International Airport in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., December 7, 2021. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/Files

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  • Nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 391,000 in April
  • Unemployment rate likely fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in March
  • Average hourly earnings forecast to jump 0.4%
  • Average workweek expected to climb to 34.7 hours

WASHINGTON, May 6 – The U.S. unemployment rate likely dropped to its pre-pandemic low of 3.5% in April, while job growth moderated to a still brisk pace amid widespread worker shortages, underscoring the challenge the Federal Reserve faces to curb high inflation.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show wages rose solidly last month and highlight the economy’s strong fundamentals despite a drop in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

“Consumers have money to burn and businesses are trying to hire people, but labor shortages are, if anything, getting worse,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “I think we are seeing the beginning of a wage price spiral, and it is going to be a tough nut to crack, even for the central bank.”

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